Fox has this …..
“It all comes down to turnout.”
That’s one of the biggest clichés in politics. It’s also true in one-point races. Welcome to Iowa, Kansas and North Carolina. ……
There’s much more to read at the link.
It it just comes down to “turn out” then Repubs win. No one can say the Dim base is energized. They’re not. OTOH, the Repub base is divided.