Over on Talkshop Suggestions Gray quotes nicely so here it is
By Roger Harrabin
Last spring’s forecast has been obtained by BBC News under Freedom of Information.
The Met Office three-monthly outlook at the end of March stated: “The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June, and slightly favours April being the driest of the three months.”
A soul-searching Met Office analysis later confessed: “Given that April was the wettest since detailed records began in 1910 and the April-May-June quarter was also the wettest, this advice was not helpful.”
In a note to the government chief scientist, the Met Office chief scientist Prof Julia Slingo explains the difficulty of constructing long-distance forecasts, given the UK’s position at the far edge of dominant world weather systems.
She says last year’s calculations were not actually wrong because they were probabilistic.
The Met Office explained it…
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