As a preview of the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) due out in September 2013, in this post, we’ll take a brief look at the multi-model ensemble mean of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations of global surface temperature anomalies through the year 2100. The four new scenarios are discussed and shown. We’ll also compare CMIP5 and CMIP3 hindcasts of the 20thCentury to see if there have been any improvements in how well climate models simulate the rates at which global surface temperatures warmed and cooled since 1901. For the observations data in another comparison, we’ll use a weighted average of the Met Office’s new HADSST3 and CruTEM4 surface temperature datasets, approximating the HadCRUT4 data, which has yet to be released formally in an easy-to-use format.
The KNMI Climate Explorer Monthly CMIP5 scenario runswebpage was used…
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