Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Over at Judith Curry’s excellent blog there’s a discussion of Trenberth’s missing heat. A new paper about oceanic temperatures says the heat’s not really missing, we just don’t have accurate enough information to tell where it is. The paper’s called Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty.

It’s paywalled, and I was interested in one rough number, so I haven’t read it. The number that I wanted was the error estimate for their oceanic heating rates. This error can be seen in Figures 1a and 3a on the abstract page, and it is on the order of about plus or minus one watt/m2. This is consistent with other estimates of upper ocean heat content measurement errors.

I think I can conclusively demonstrate that their claimed error is way too small. To understand why, let me take a detour through the…

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